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How crucial is Tinubu’s re-election to Nigeria’s energy sector? Experts’ verdict

A civil society coalition, the Alliance for Energy Stability and Economic Growth (AESEG), has urged Nigerians to support President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027, arguing that continuity in leadership is essential to sustain the renewed confidence of international oil companies (IOCs) in Nigeria’s petroleum sector.

In a statement issued on Monday, AESEG president Dr Suleiman Garba Danladi said Tinubu’s reforms have repositioned the oil and gas industry, citing recent multi-million-dollar transactions as evidence that global investors, once wary of Nigeria’s regulatory environment, are now returning with confidence.

Danladi pointed to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) approval of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPco) and Nigerian Agip Exploration (NAE) to acquire TotalEnergies’ 12.5% stake in Oil Mining Lease (OML) 118 as a major milestone. According to the Commission, Shell acquired a 10% stake for $408 million, while Agip bought a 2.5% stake for $102 million following a rigorous vetting process.

“This is proof that Tinubu’s policies are working,” Danladi said. “Shell is consolidating its deepwater interests, Agip is reaffirming its commitment, and regulators are now firm in safeguarding government interests. That kind of progress can only be sustained through policy continuity.”

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The group also highlighted the NUPRC’s recent decision to revoke an $860 million deal between TotalEnergies and Mauritius-based Chappal Energies for failure to meet financial obligations, describing it as a sign of a more disciplined and accountable regulatory environment.

“With these bold steps, Nigeria is no longer a playground for speculative investors. Only serious players with the capacity to deliver are welcome. This shift has huge implications for revenue growth, job creation, and energy security,” AESEG stated.

Danladi emphasised the strategic importance of the Bonga oilfield — Nigeria’s first deepwater project and a key contributor to foreign exchange earnings — saying that experienced operators will help the country move closer to the 2 million barrels per day production target.

He noted that Nigeria’s oil industry is currently at a “critical juncture” as IOCs divest from onshore assets and focus on deepwater investments. Political stability, he argued, will be essential to navigate this transition successfully.

“Only a steady hand at the helm can guarantee that Nigeria fully benefits from this phase. That’s why we’re calling on Nigerians to support President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027,” he said.

AESEG warned that a change in leadership could jeopardise recent gains and unsettle investor sentiment.

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“The oil majors are closely monitoring Nigeria. They’re encouraged by the current pace of reforms but also value predictability. A sudden shift in direction could undermine the progress we’ve made,” Danladi added.

The group concluded by insisting that sustained leadership beyond 2027 is crucial to cementing Nigeria’s status as a competitive and attractive destination for global energy investments.

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